A. Introduction: Lots of air, ink and ideas have already been wasted in trying to make sense out of the signing and timing of the military cooperation PACT between the Republic of Cameroun and Russia. This article shows you how the Biya regime betrayed its longstanding Western allies and outlines the stated and implied reasons for the timing and signing of the Russo-Cameroun military PACT. Bearing in mind that for every military action undertaken by one super power, there is always an equal or immediate reaction from the other super powers, this article makes a critical analysis of SEVEN possible consequences of Cameroun’s betrayal of her Western allies. The article concludes with an explanation of how Southern Cameroons (Ambazonia) stands to gain more from the negative publicity French Cameroun has caused itself. In a nutshell, the question therefore, this article seeks to answer is whether or not the timing of Cameroon’s decision to sign a military cooperation agreement with Russia amidst war in Ukraine and Ambazonia is a costly bluff or a betrayal?
B. HOW THE BIYA REGIME BETRAYED AMERICA, FRANCE, THE UK AND UNO
1. On March 22nd 2022, the Biya regime abstained when the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning the Russian invasion of UKRAINE; 2. On April 7th 2022, the Biya regime again abstained when the United Nations General Assembly voted to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council following her aggression against Ukraine. 3. On April 22, Cameroun signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia;
C. STATED AND IMPLIED REASONS FOR RUSSO-CAMEROUN MILITARY PACT;
1. Cameroun needs Russia training and equipment.2. To reinforce military ties between the two countries. 3. Cameroun intends to effectively combat terrorism (Boko Haram).4. Cameroun secretly intends to use newly acquired equipment and training for combat with Ambazonia freedom fighters.5. Cameroun has lost support from the US and France in its genocidal war in Southern Cameroons (Ambazonia).6. Russia is doing this for geostrategic reasons to win new allies around the Gulf of Guinea.7. To protect Russian 37.5% equity interest in Etinde gas project offshore Victoria located in Southern Cameroons (Ambazonia).
D. SEVEN CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSO-CAMEROUN MILITARY PACT;1. The Russo-Cameroun military pact signed on April 12, 2022 can be rightly described as a “costly bluff” to Cameroun. Cameroun claims that as a sovereign nation, it has a choice to discuss and to do business with any nation of its choosing. While this claim is not without any merit, it is equally important to mention here that this is more of a betrayal of old friends, hence a costly bluff on the part of Cameroun. During times of war or crisis, friends and foes choose their sides and the Biya regime has clearly chosen Russia over America, France and UK. It is often said that the hypocrisy of bad friends has no hiding place. The hypocrisy of the Biya regime towards America and her Western allies has been clearly and finally exposed by Cameroun’s neutrality votes in the General Assembly of the United Nations Organization when the question of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was put on the floor for vote and finally, through the signing of a military pact with Russia when Russia is being isolated by the rest of the world.
2. The Russo-Cameroun military pact could rightly be perceived by America and her Western allies as a betrayal and a slap on their faces by the Biya regime they have been blindly supporting. In America and the West, we grew up learning that, real friendship is shown in a time of crisis. But the Biya regime did the exact opposite by siding a military pact with Russia. It is inconsistent and inconceivable for Mr. Paul Biya to ask Russia and Ukraine to meet and talk over their differences on one day and then turn around the next day only to sign a military cooperation agreement with the same Russia. If this does not amount to granting a moral and psychological victory to Russia over Ukraine and the West, then what is it? If this is not betrayal, then what other name can any rational person use to qualify Cameroun’s decision to sign this agreement at this particular moment of pain and grief in Ukraine, Ambazonia and the world?
3. The decision to sign a military cooperation agreement with Russia and its timing, regardless of the argument that Cameroun is a sovereign nation doesn’t sit down well with any rational person or nation, let alone the United States of America, France and Britain that have been using “caution” as a diplomatic weapon to respond to Paul Biya’s bloody war in a supposed independent country – Southern Cameroons (Ambazonia). That is why the West see the Russo-Cameroun military pact as a betrayal of monumental proportions. America and the West rightly perceive Biya’s military agreement with Russia at this particular point in time as encouraging Russia, fanning the war in Ukraine and a calculated attempt to prolong the genocidal war in Ambazonia. 4. Russia can afford to mess with America, but Cameroun should not. That is why Russia and America are referred to as “super powers” of which Cameroun isn’t one. Therefore, anyone who advised the Yaoundé regime to sign this military agreement with Russia at this particular time hates the Biya regime and doesn’t deserve their employment anymore. Just like the West encouraged Ukraine’s standoff against Russia only to abandon Ukraine to face Russia alone during the invasion, the same fate could befall Cameroun. If America, France and Britain decide today to destroy Cameroun in retaliation and divide the country into two along their recognized international boundaries as obtained at independence on January 1st 1960 (for French Cameroon) and October 1st 1961 (for Southern Cameroons), there is absolutely nothing Russia can do about it.
5. Following the magnitude of the damage Ukraine is undergoing in the hands of Russia, given the increase in the cost of living in Europe due to the ongoing war, mindful of the uncertainty about the future world order caused by the war in Ukraine, the West may never forgive the Biya regime for what it considers as a blatant betrayal. While America and Russia are fighting their cold war on one end, Cameroun stands the risk of catching the cold on the other end.
6. The Biya regime can kill people in Southern Cameroons as they like and get away with gross human rights violations and genocide but they can’t get away with picking an irresponsible and ill-timed geopolitical and geostrategic war against France, Britain and the United States of America. It is easy to forgive the mistake from others but it’s hard to rebuild the trust a friend has destroyed. America may never trust Cameroun again. By choosing to sign a military cooperation agreement with Russia at a time that Russian military invasion and aggression against Ukraine is being condemned worldwide, the Biya regime just lost three vital allies in its bloody genocidal war and attempt to forcefully and illegally continue to retain the independent territory of Southern Cameroons (Ambazonia) as an integral part of French Cameroon territory that never was.
7. Geopolitics is driven by military and economic interests. Only 11% of proven oil reserves in the Cameroons is located within French Cameroun territory, 89% is located within the territory of Southern Cameroons. What is even more, 100% of proven gas reserve is all located offshore Victoria. That is why French Cameroun could be rightly perceived by the West as a burden and no longer a benefit to either Europe or America. No wonder Ambassador Tibor Nagy upon learning about the signing by Cameroun of the April 12 Military pact with Russia saw this as Cameroun signing its own death warrant. In his twit regarding this “military cooperation Agreement” he loudly stated; “Can’t believe Cameroon government incredibly bad timing of signing military deal with Russia – at height of aggression in Ukraine. This is poke in the eye of US and France, two countries Cameroon may need help from in future. But good for Ambazonians.”
E. Who stands to benefit from Cameroun’s blunder and betrayal of her Western allies?
Paradoxically, these Western powers have been shielding the Biya regime from being referred to the Security Council of the UN or the international criminal court to respond to alleged egregious crimes committed against humanity and genocide in Southern Cameroons (Ambazonia). It is certain therefore, that if America and the West come to the conclusion that; the Biya regime is aiding Russia, they no longer have control over the Biya regime and the territory of East Cameroon has been lost to Russia and China, America can change its policy towards Cameroon by recognizing Ambazonia as an independent State which will enable America to counter Russia via Ambazonia like they have done previously.
America and her Western allies supported South Korea over North Korea, America and her Western allies Supported South Vietnam over North Vietnam and recently they also supported the creation of South Sudan from mainland Sudan, all because they were trying to counter either Russian or Chinese economic or military influence. Nothing can stop America, France and Britain from supporting Ambazonia to counter Russia and China, whose economic and military influence in French Cameroun is fast becoming a problem to the economic and military interests of American and Western allies in Gulf of Guinea.
F. CONCLUSION: -The Russo-Cameroun military pact is a storm in a tea cup because people who leave in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. Cameroon has so many visible faults (genocidal war, gross violation of human rights, huge embezzlement files, and illegal occupation of Ambazonia) which America and her allies are fully knowledgeable about and have been ignoring that could be opened up in retaliation to this ill-timed and ill-advised military agreement.
-The Russo-Cameroun military pact is a violation of one of the cardinal laws of power which states that; “never step on the toe of your master.” Cameroun has clearly stepped on the toes of America, France and Britain. These three super powers have been shielding Cameroun’s illegal occupation of Ambazonia and have since been looking the other way while Cameroun commits unacceptable gross violations of human rights and genocide against the people of Sothern Cameroons. Thanks to these three super powers, crimes that Gadhafi’s regime in Libya, Saddam Hussain’s regime in Iraq and Assad’s regime in Syria could not get away with, the Biya regime has been getting away with, surprisingly.
Is this going to be the moment and the time Cameroon’s shift towards Russia will force America, France and Britain to open up Cameroun’s dirty files? No matter the answer to this critical question, in my personal opinion, Russia should not help French Cameroon against the interest of Southern Cameroons but should rather try to mediate between the two sides. Any war between Russia and America over the two Cameroons will not benefit the people, it will benefit only arms traffickers and those who thrive under chaotic conditions while the masses suffer. This is a storm in a tea cup that could have been avoided.
Written by Electa Shalo
Ass Sec SCNC UK
